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“Mom, are we there yet?”

Thursday, October 24, 2024

Arguably the most well-known phrase when traveling with kids, this question also applies to the challenge of deploying self-driving vehicles. So, since the unavoidable topic for this newsletter issue is to review what really transpired during the much-hyped Tesla robotaxi launch, let’s take a step back in time to get some references and ask ourselves - are we really there yet?

By: Jan Hellåker

AI-genererad bild om visar två guldskimrande självkörande bilar

Elon Musk's first public talk about autonomous cars

In April 2016, Drive Sweden was invited to an event in Oslo, organized by the Norwegian government, where Elon Musk was a guest on a panel hosted by the Norwegian Minister of Transportation. This turned out to be the first time Elon spoke publicly about what would later be published as Tesla’ Master Plan, Part Deux. At that time, Tesla was offering only Autopilot 1.0, but while during the Oslo event, Elon Musk spoke about a new type of public transportation where fully autonomous cars would take the passenger all the way to their final destinations; about the ability for Tesla owners to share their cars and he also hinted at a larger type of vehicle.

Stuck in AD-concepts?

Fast forward eight years to the lavish We, Robot event, and the concepts shown are surprisingly close to the vision Elon Musk outlined in Oslo. However, they remain just that  - concepts. The industry media was not overwhelmed, noting that the regulatory path to allow vehicles without driver controls is still a long and winding one. The timelines for when the new Cybercab would be available were vague, at best.  We believe the biggest disappointment was the two-seats-only Cybercab design, which almost disqualifies it from even being considered a new generation of public transportation, or mass transit.

That deficiency was somewhat compensated for by the introduction of the “up to 20 seats” Robovan, which looked like a slightly updated and enlarged version of the slow moving “toasters” that are being piloted all over the world. The future planning of that vehicle was however even more sketchy. 

Elon also discussed making all existing Tesla models available for autonomous sharing, offering car owners the opportunity to earn money from their vehicles when not in use. Obviously an excellent idea, but once again media questioned its technical and regulatory feasibility, given Tesla’s headaches with its current “Full Self Driving - Supervised” offering.

All in all, industry observers seemed quite skeptical over Tesla’s ability to deliver on all the promises made at the event, at least within the near future. 

Elon Musk has often been quoted saying that “prototypes are easy, production is hard”. So the tough question to ask is; if it took 8 years to go from words to prototypes (at a Hollywood movie set), how much longer will it take to bring these ideas into the real world? On the other hand, rumors suggest that Tesla's robotaxi service is already being tested by employees on public roads (with safety driver) and that Tesla is in negotiations with Palo Alto for a community service pilot. It seems the jury will be out for some time yet!

Or are we in the future? 

Meanwhile, a distinguished panel at the recent Drive Sweden Forum with Charlotte EisnerMagda Collado and Erik Coelingh, discussed the same fundamental question – Is the technology ready? The unanimous response was YES — under certain conditions, with Waymo often cited as the leading player. Watch the the interviews with Charlotte and Erik.

Written by:

Jan Hellåker

Jan Hellåker

Senior advisor